The Wine Industrys Growing Divide Has Nothing To Do With The Market - Forbes

Silicon Valley Bank’s 2026 DTC report reveals a widening gap between thriving and struggling wineries—and the cause has nothing to do with the market.

The numbers tell two very different stories about American wine right now.

Top-performing wineries grew revenue by 22% in 2025. Bottom-performing wineries declined by 13%. The median winery had no growth at all. That gap—and what drives it—sits at the center of Silicon Valley Bank’s 2026 Direct-to-Consumer Wine Report, released this month by the bank’s wine division, now part of First Citizens Bank.

Drawing on survey responses from 450 family wineries, the 15th annual report arrives at a measured conclusion: The worst of the downturn may be behind the industry, but stabilization is not the same thing as recovery.

“Things feel different, not better—not yet,” says Rob McMillan, EVP and founder of Silicon Valley Banks’s Wine Division and the report’s author.