Under the Hood: Drinking Rates Stabilized. Wine Sales Kept Falling.

Support Independent Local News: Napa Valley Features depends on paid subscriptions to keep doing this work. We know this is a difficult time for many, but strong local news and information are more important than ever. As we continue the mission of Napa Valley Features, we are also building new tools and community resources that readers can explore at NapaServe.org. Please consider becoming a paid subscriber, renewing your subscription or joining as a founding member. We are now in our fourth year, and we could not do it without your support. “If two-thirds of the decline is existing drinkers buying less, the exposure is not primarily in customer acquisition. It is in frequency and basket size among people already in the funnel — the wine club member who renews at a lower tier, the tasting-room visitor who buys two bottles instead of four.” Subscribe The Spotlight: Welcome to Under the Hood, our exclusive weekly series for Napa Valley Features paid subscribers. Summary of Today’s Article: Gallup’s July Consumption Habits survey found that 54% of U.S. adults drink alcohol, unchanged from 2025 and the lowest reading in a trend that begins in 1939. Three of the survey’s other measures also flattened or reversed, ending a three-year slide. But federal tax-paid volume data show wine consumption continued falling through 2025, and a Napa Valley Features analysis of census projections finds that demographics can explain almost none of the decline — or reverse it. Three scenarios put U.S. wine volume between 652 million and 825 million gallons by 2030. Beyond today’s discussion, we’re also digging into the latest results from our reader polls and pulling a few takeaways from our local economic dashboard. Subscribe